Auto Sales Forecasting
Major Project.
You work in the data analytics department of a national auto dealer, and have been given the task of forecasting U.S. new car sales for next year. The CEO of the firm is particularly concerned about rising interest rates, and would like a five page report detailing your forecast. In order to complete your report you will need to obtain data from various on line sources. The ultimate conclusion of the report should be stated up front, including a recommendation as to whether your firm should expect sales growth above or below historical averages, assuming market share is unchanged.
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Auto Sales Forecasting
Include the following sections in your report:
1. Conclusion and sales growth expectation.
2. Theory of what economic factors determine US auto sales.
3. State the business question your study will look to answers (for example: be sure to include in your question a statement about interest rates, as this is the CEO’s key concern).
4. State the population regression function you will use to estimate the relationship. A generic PRF is of the form:
Y = B0 + B1*X1 + B2*X2 + …. + E
5. State your hypothesis of what you expect to see.
6. Obtain the data from a reliable source such as the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce, BLS, etc.
7. Load the data into excel or your statistical package of choice.
8. Run your regression.
9. Draw conclusions about your hypothesis.
10. Discuss the results and identify any limitations of your study. (for example limitations in data, residual plots, etc).
Auto Sales Forecasting
The total project should be on the order of 5 pages, including tables and figures.
Include references in MLA or APA style.
Auto Sales Forecasting
Rubric – 75 points for following all of the 10 steps carefully. 20 points for writing clarity. 5 points for proper sourcing and references.
